Iowa
Republicans hold their caucus tomorrow, marking the formal start of the delegate selection process for Republican
nominee for the 2012 United States presidential election. Results from the
first-in-the-nation contest will help to build the campaign coffers of the
winner and others who have strong showings, while those whose results are weak
may decide to hang up the towel and gracefully step aside. Polling both
nationally and in Iowa has shown fickleness among the
electorate, continuing through the month of December and data from at least one
major social media network appears to mirror the polling data.
We looked at the
national Facebook fan daily growth rate in the month of December of the five
leading Republican presidential nominee candidates: Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum.
In the first week
of December, the Facebook fan base of Rick Perry and Ron Paul grew while Newt
Gingrich lost fans and Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum maintained sustained
growth. In the second week, Paul continued to grow and Gingrich
continued to fade, while Perry’s growth rate stalled and Romney started to
surge. During the third week we saw the previously strong growth of both Paul
and Romney slow a bit while Gingrich briefly appeared to regain some momentum.
By the end of the week the dark horse candidacy of Santorum began to surge. This
rise of Santorum continued through the end of the month, although he lags
behind Romney who ended the month by adding a dramatic 7000+ Facebook fans in a
single day.
Source: OhMyGov Media Monitoring
If Iowa Republican caucus-goers follow the trend
shown in Facebook fans, then Romney will be the clear winner with Paul having a
strong second place showing. Gingrich and Santorum will battle for third. This
is consistent with recent Iowa polling data from Real Clear Politics.
Interestingly, a look at Twitter follower growth
predicts Paul emerging as the winner, followed by Romney and Santorum. Recent
studies have demonstrated correlations between social media fan growth rates
and political election outcomes, suggesting that social media fan growth rates
could indicate the likelihood of being successfully elected. Twitter has been
shown to be a less reliable indicator and less consistent with polling data
than the Facebook network, but it remains to be seen how the volatile nature of
a caucus will correlate with the emerging indicators in the equally volatile
world of social media.
Source: OhMyGov Media Monitoring
