Although this week proved to be another roller coaster ride
for the 2012 GOP candidates, social media continues to correlate with polling
data and even surpass the traditional methods in predicting election outcomes.
Just a couple of weeks ago it appeared to be a foregone
conclusion that Mitt Romney would wrap this thing up and charge into Florida
with three wins, allowing the GOP to crown its nominee and turn their focus on
defeating the president. But with the Iowa GOP announcing that Rick Santorum
was the actual winner of last month’s caucus and Newt Gingrich running away
with the South Carolina primary, Romney is instead just one of three candidates
claiming a single win.
Even as political pundits and campaign managers are scrambling
to figure out what changed the momentum and eventual outcome of last night’s
South Carolina, the leading indicators from social media data clearly shows the
build and fade for Newt and Romney, respectively, started right after January
16th – the first of two debates in South Carolina.
While the performance of all the candidates was less than stellar
in that first debate, they all managed to portray the presumed front-runner
Romney as a wealthy outsider that could not connect with Republican voters.
While all candidates took shots at Romney, Gingrich began to emerge as a
champion of the conservative right.
Source: OhMyGov Media Monitoring
Although many expected the January 18 televised interview
with Newt’s second ex-wife to hurt him with values-oriented voters, it appears
that for a savvy and seasoned politician like Gingrich even bad press can be
gold. In fact, the intrigue
appeared to translate into positive social media momentum when Gingrich’s
blistering response at the January 19 debate turned what could have been a
devastating allegation into sympathy for a candidate who portrayed himself into
a victim of biased media.
Source: OhMyGov Media Monitoring
One day after the South Carolina primary, momentum continues
to rise for both Romney and Gingrich, suggesting that Florida’s primary is
either man’s to win. At least for now.
Related Stories:
1. Social Media Predicts Polling
2. GOP Reign on Social Media Ending
3. GOP Widens Social Media Lead 2010 Elections
